Are Ohio's shrinking cities more affordable?💸 Yes and no.
Lots 'o links in this edition! 🔗
When it comes to housing affordability and stability, there exists a theoretical link between the overall health of a region (which includes population growth or loss) and housing.
At the most basic level, areas experiencing rapid population growth are presumed to have more severe housing affordability issues. This makes sense when looking at housing from a supply point of view. New residents moving to the area need new housing, and are competing for the same housing units as existing residents. In an unplanned and unpredictable way, it’s up to private industry to construct new housing units that can absorb this unknown amount of population growth.
But looking at slow- or no-growth regions presents an interesting wrinkle to this general wisdom.
In Ohio’s shrinking counties, the rate of households spending more than 30% or more of their annual income on rent is just as high—and even higher—than in Franklin County. This reality pokes at the oversimplified thesis of housing supply and demand. Unlike typical commodities, the provision of housing is very complex. It’s a necessity, but also a product. It’s understood as a social need, but not a right. It’s used for shelter, but also for financial investment. It’s traded on the stock market, but also owned outright by many homeowners.
Take a look at this bar chart, showing both population change and the percent of households experiencing housing cost burden. Here, the continuing population loss of the Rust Belt is highlighted. From 2017 to 2022, Lucas, Summit, Mahoning, and Cuyahoga counties lost population. In the same period, Franklin County grew by 5.16%.
In much of the housing crisis narrative, the housing affordability issues in Central Ohio are attributed to our significant job and population growth. Yet, regions in economic stagnation and even freefall also have severe housing cost burdens. The crisis of housing affordability is not merely a result of economic growth, it’s both systemic and persistent.
Is housing cheaper in these shrinking counties than in Columbus?
Absolutely. In Youngstown, the median gross rent is $718 per month (2023 ACS 5-year estimates). In Toledo, it’s $880. In Columbus, it’s $1,124. But the relative cost of housing as a proportion of income is equally high between high-growth Columbus and Ohio’s shrinking counties. This is somewhat paradoxical, as one might assume that households in shrinking regions would spend less of their income on rent.
We must de-couple the assumed link between housing affordability and economic growth.
Housing is not affordable for many hundreds of thousands of households in shrinking regions. For these families, there is no singular crisis. There are many crises: housing, wages, healthcare, transportation, and so on. Even here—in prosperous Franklin County—39% of workers do not earn enough to make ends meet. Building new housing in Youngstown isn’t going to meaningfully reduce the housing cost burden of these struggling households, nor would the private market invest in such a scheme without sufficient consumer demand. Even if new housing is needed (perhaps due to aging housing stock), developers are not likely to build in a shrinking region.
Put simply, there’s a large group of households for whom housing is much too expensive—even in neighborhoods where housing costs are very low (in relation to regional or national averages).
In addition to the burden of rising housing costs, wages have not kept up with inflation or cost of living—despite increases in worker productivity. Between 1979 and 2019, “real wages fell for workers with lower levels of educational attainment and rose for highly educated workers.” To address the persistence of high housing-cost burden across geographies, government must invest in non-market housing solutions, like community land trusts. These arrangements effectively remove shelter from the arbitrary price-setting of the real estate market. Urban land trusts can hold properties in perpetuity and restrict their re-sale price through restrictive covenants, allowing eligible households to access housing they otherwise could not afford.
Land trusts are one way of taking properties out of the non-stop bidding wars of a winner-takes-all real estate market.
In their 2022 book, Homelessness is a Housing Problem: How structural factors explain U.S. patterns, authors Colburn and Aldern recommend taking a certain portion of housing stock off the market. This is because the housing crisis is largely persistent for those with little income, and “tool of the private market is not well-suited to the task” (Colburn and Aldern, 2022, p. 172). Non-market housing options, the authors say, are necessary to house people “with the lowest incomes” through strategies such as “public and nonprofit ownership of a portion of the multifamily housing stock” (Colburn and Aldern, 2022, page 173-174). While building more housing is absolutely necessary, making sure access to some of that housing isn’t solely determined by access to capital in a market increasingly attractive to corporate investors is also crucial.
Make walking one of your resolutions 🚶🚶♀️
This newsletter is about housing. But housing is connected to…pretty much everything else.
Think about something as fundamental as walking. Your access to safe and pleasant places to walk is often linked to where you can afford to live. Because of this, walking isn’t equally available to all. This fun new video highlights the many benefits of walking, as well as the benefits of living in walkable neighborhoods. This highlights the urgent need to build walkable communities with a mix of uses. Research consistently finds that walkable communities:
promote social interaction
reduce isolation, and
enhance community cohesion
Instead of more of the same low-density residential sprawl, public policy must shift to offer people viable choices in how they arrive at destinations, and allow those necessary destinations to be closer to where people live. This is what building communities under the traditional American development pattern can provide: short blocks, shops on the corner, duplexes and triplexes mixed in with single-family homes, and public schools with pedestrian-first orientations.
🗞️ Lots o’ links this time 🏘
Local + Regional 🌳
'We have A.I. landlords,' housing attorney warns of automated evictions in Columbus
17 July 2024, WSYX ABC6Local realtors say having higher housing inventory does not make them more affordable
22 August 2024, WBNS 10TVExcerpt: “Good to see the inventory go up a bit, but it’s still not meeting the kind of demand that we are seeing out there,” said Columbus Realtors President Scott Hrabcak. However, local realtors say this does not mean homes are more affordable…the housing market is still not balanced in central Ohio and if you're strapped for cash, it's not easy to make a competitive offer. “They are bidding with people that are potentially downsizing and coming into those transactions with cash or they are also competing with corporations gobbling up affordable housing," said Realtor Andrew Robinson.
City of Columbus has growing number of short-term rentals
19 September 2024, WBNS 10TVIs 3D-printing of homes an affordable housing solution? Columbus' first being built now
4 September 2024, The Columbus DispatchFranklin County organization building new homes at affordable prices
19 September 2024, WBNS 10TVReport says central Ohio housing crisis could cause 68% spike in homelessness by 2028
8 October 2024, WOSUColumbus housing authority’s CEO is the highest paid housing lead in the nation
11 October 2024, WCMH NBC4Report: Billionaire investors driving homelessness, housing costs
22 October 2024, Ohio Capital JournalColumbus sees highest housing inventory in six years
25 October 2024, WCMH NBC4
2,600 on waitlist for 87-units at one Columbus affordable housing community
29 October 2024, WSYX ABC6Columbus City Council holds public hearing to discuss 'Housing For All' final initiatives
13 November 2024, WBNS 10TVCentral Ohio leaders announce new coalition aimed at expanding, diversifying housing market
19 November 2024, WBNS 10TVWhat economists noticed about central Ohio’s housing crisis
29 November 2024, WCMH NBC4Groups put forth plan to help house Ohioans
10 December 2024, WCMH NBC4Columbus apartment complex sets central Ohio sales record in purchase by global firm
11 December 2024, The Columbus DispatchOhio affordable housing advocates look forward to next General Assembly’s housing legislation
11 December 2024, Ohio Capital JournalOhio State faculty, industry experts offer affordable housing solutions
12 December 2024, The Ohio State University$30.5M financing secured for multi-housing community in Downtown Columbus, Ohio
16 December 2024, JLLCMHA buys affordable housing for firefighters, police, teachers, other 'essential workers'
17 December 2024, The Columbus DispatchNew home listings in Central Ohio rise at second-largest clip in country, per report
19 December 2024, Columbus Business FirstNumber of Columbus homes for sale jumps in 2024, but prices keep rising
19 December 2024, The Columbus DispatchExcerpt: “Columbus-area home buyers continue to see a lot more choices, though not lower prices. … ‘There are nearly 1,000 more homes on the market right now in central Ohio than last year at this time. There is more to choose from,’ Columbus Realtors President Scott Hrabcak said in a news release. … Unfortunately for buyers, the rise in options has not led to a decline in prices. The median sales price of a central Ohio home in November was $315,000, up 6.8% from a year ago. For the year, prices are up 5.4%.”
Orange barrels on the streets, cranes in the sky, but some Columbus families still struggle
20 December 2024, The Columbus DispatchLots of luxury and a record in the priciest Columbus-area homes to sell in 2024
27 December 2024, The Columbus DispatchWorthington notches legal win in protracted battle with Lifestyle Communities over UMCH site
31 December 2024, The Columbus DispatchColumbus developments to watch in 2025: Will Intel go skyward?
8 January 2025, The Columbus DispatchOhio cities want more housing options. Could the solution be in their backyards?
8 January 2025, Ideastream—The Ohio NewsroomBusiness, community coalition proposes big action on Ohio housing laws
8 January 2025, Ohio Public Radio—Statehouse News Bureau
Beyond Ohio 🚀
The Thanksgiving Effect: The national spare-bedroom supply could be put to better use.
27 November 2024, SlateNew York City Approves a Plan to Create 80,000 New Homes
5 December 2024, The New York TimesHigh rises made out of wood? What matters in whether ‘mass timber’ buildings are sustainable
11 December 2024, The ConversationRhode Island Could Create a 'Public Developer' to Address Housing Crisis
11 December 2024, GoverningThe U.S. is facing a severe housing shortage. Will Trump's proposals help?
11 December 2024, NPRCan the U.S. Climb Out of Its ‘Unprecedented’ Housing Crisis?
11 December 2024, The New York TimesThe median renter in America has a net worth of $10,400. The median homeowner’s net worth is $400,000
16 December 2024, CNNThe Housing Affordability Crisis Is Going Global
16 December 2024, The Wall Street JournalWhy zoning reform won’t solve the housing crisis
16 December 2024, The ConversationSolving the Housing Crisis Will Take More Than YIMBY
17 December 2024, The American ProspectWoman Who Faced Racism When Buying a Home Speaks Out Against Bias
18 December 2024, The New York TimesEven Mobile-Home Prices Keep Rising
19 December 2024, The New York TimesIt's Official: Boring Cities Are Bad for Your Health
2 January 2025, WiredKey excerpt: “Very soon…property developers may have to treat neuroscientific findings as key information to be weighed up alongside structural-load calculations, energy efficiency, lighting, and acoustics. And the person in the street will welcome this change. Not just because it will improve our health but simply because it will make our world much more joyful and engaging.”
A critique of corridor zoning, by Michael Eliason
3 January 2025, Rondezvous (Substack)Corridor planning (locating multi-family housing only along big roads) is essentially like “limiting dense, affordable housing to the most toxic, noisiest, and most dangerous streets in the city…an approach that puts renters directly into harm’s way.”
Why Are There So Many Empty Bedrooms in U.S. Households?
9 January 2025, The New York TimesWhat Happens When There Are Fewer Spaces to Park?
12 January 2025, The New York Times